Football props bets from statistical models.

We come from data science and machine learning, and have modelled the props markets since 2020. Subscribe to get the bets our models find, price your own combinations in Betbuilder, or track every account in Betting Manager. Every bet we send is logged to a public sheet, wins and losses alike.

Prefer to watch first? Try the demo or read the public results.

  • Modelling since 2020
  • 24,000+ bets logged
  • Four bookmakers tracked separately
  • Tools that work with any bookmaker
Results

Every bet since September 2022.

Every bet is written to a public spreadsheet, with the stake, the odds taken and the bookmaker. The figures below read directly from that sheet, drawdowns included.

Units staked total turnover
Average odds per bet
Average stake units
Max drawdown peak to trough

Results by bookmaker

Split by book so you can see the edge is not carried by a single soft market.

Profit, turnover, ROI, bet count, average bets per month and average odds by bookmaker
Bookmaker Profit (u) Staked (u) ROI Bets Bets/mo Avg odds
Loading…

How to read these numbers

  • A unit is 1% of your bankroll. Stakes vary with the model's estimated edge, so a typical bet is between 0.5 and 2 units.
  • ROI is profit divided by turnover. Measured against total amount staked, which is the larger denominator and the stricter measure.
  • Odds are the ones we actually took at the time of posting. You may get better or worse depending on when you place.
  • Past results do not predict future results. A positive edge over 24,000 bets is meaningful evidence. It still carries no guarantee about what happens next.
Products

Bets from our models, plus the tools around them.

Follow the bets our models find, price your own combinations, or keep every bookmaker account in order. Each is its own subscription, so take what you use.

€99/month or €29/week

Props Betting

The bets our models find, sent as we place them. Built on the statistical models we have developed across the props markets since 2020.

  • Stake sizing and the odds we took
  • Every bet logged to the public sheet
  • Delivered in Bethub, our members app

€35/month

Betbuilder

Estimated odds from every model in one place. Combine selections to capitalise on correlations the books price independently.

  • Model odds across the props markets in eight leagues
  • Two-leg combinations priced for how the outcomes move together
  • Kelly-based stake suggestion, whichever bookmaker you use

€15/month

Betting Manager

All your bookmaker accounts tracked in one place, so you always know your total bankroll and where it sits.

  • Multi-currency balances across every account
  • Balance history and allocation by bookmaker
  • Limitation analytics: rate, days to limit, stake at limit

Not ready to pay for anything?

Both the public results sheet and the analytics app are open to everyone, and the Bethub demo runs on sample data with no account needed.

Open the analytics app
How it works

What subscribing looks like in practice

  1. Set a bankroll and a unit

    Decide what you are willing to stake over a season and set one unit to 1% of it. Every bet we publish is sized in units, so the staking plan is already done.

  2. Receive the bets in Bethub

    Bets arrive in the Bethub app with the selection, the stake in units and the odds we took. Place them at whichever bookmaker you hold, then track each bet at the price you actually got.

  3. Track the long run

    Results are logged publicly as they settle. Judge the service the way we do, over thousands of bets and several seasons.

Method

Where the edge comes from

Props markets are priced with less attention than main lines. Books post thousands of player and team totals every week and cannot model each one as carefully as a match result.

We build statistical models across those markets, estimate a fair price for each, and bet only where the offered odds are far enough above our estimate to survive the margin.

It is unglamorous. Average odds sit near 1.8 and average stake near 1.3 units. The edge is small per bet and only shows up in volume, which is exactly why the full record matters more than any individual result.

Worth knowing first

  • Losing weeks and losing months come with the territory.
  • A small bankroll chasing fast returns will struggle with the variance.
  • Losing bets sit in the same public sheet as the winners.
About us

The team behind the models

BK Digital is a small, dedicated team with professional backgrounds in data science and machine learning, and a genuine passion for football. We have been building and refining sports betting models since 2020, taking a fully data-driven approach to finding value in the props markets.

Everything we publish is built for serious, disciplined long-term bettors: people who stake consistently, keep to a fixed unit, and give a service thousands of bets before judging it.

That is also why the full record sits on this page. We would rather you scrutinise nearly four years of logged bets before paying us anything, so read the results and make up your own mind.

FAQ

Questions worth asking before you pay

Bets are written to a public spreadsheet at the moment they are sent, before the result is known. The numbers on this page are read live from that sheet, and the free analytics app lets you filter the same data yourself by league, bookmaker, market and date.

You should still treat any tipster's self-reported record with scepticism. The best we can do is keep the log complete, so the losing bets are as easy to find as the winning ones.

Enough that one unit (1% of it) is a stake you are comfortable losing, repeatedly. The historical record includes a peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 48 units, so a bankroll that cannot absorb a swing of that size is too small for this style of betting.

No. The record is tracked across Bet365, Kambi, NordicBet and Betano so you can see where the bets have been available, and the Betbuilder app works with any bookmaker. You will get the most value from books that post props early and price them loosely.

Volume follows the fixture calendar. Across the logged record the average is roughly 40 bets on an active day, heavily concentrated around weekend league rounds, with nothing at all during breaks.

Probably, eventually. Bookmakers restrict consistently profitable accounts, and props betting at scale attracts attention faster than most markets. Spreading turnover across several books, as the breakdown above reflects, is part of how the record has stayed viable.

From the account page in Bethub, where your subscription is managed. Check the terms shown at checkout for the notice period that applies to your plan.

Read the record first.

Every bet since September 2022 is public, including the bad months. If the numbers hold up to your scrutiny, the bets are one click away.